Natural and Human Seasonal Migration Part II
Now that Mona and I are semi-retired and residing in Hainan, we have many more enquiries from friends abroad about when they should visit China. Autumn is often articulated as the best season to visit China. The summer heat and humidity fade, giving way to clear skies, cooler temperatures, and stunning fall colors. It is the ideal time for sightseeing, hiking, and photography, with the popular tourist spots of the Great Wall and Jiuzhaigou Valley looking their best!
During autumn in Hainan, heat and humidity do not dissipate. The sky is thick with clouds, and the place is still lush and flush in tropical green! Yet autumn in Hainan is a time of great change!
4.81 million tourists visited Hainan during the Super Golden Week of October 1st, 2025. With a permanent resident population of 10.55 million in Hainan (latest survey end of 2025), there was a 45% surge in the number of human inhabitants on the island during the 8-day holiday period! More importantly, it was a clear pattern of high premiums, characteristic of a "tidal economy" during the Super Golden Week. The most dramatic price increases were seen in the hotel and tourist services sector. Haikou's five-star hotels saw a weekly price increase of17%. The price for a premium diving experience at a Sanya resort was 1,288 yuan compared with the usual price of about 800 yuan. As is common with a "tidal" economy, prices dropped sharply after the long holiday break! The average hotel price in Sanya fell by 36% in the week following the break.
Autumn is also the time for a sudden surge in the number of fauna inhabitants on the island, following the southward migration of migratory birds in the tens of thousands from their northern breeding grounds! With its rich and diverse wetland ecosystems, Hainan is a vital hub for the natural seasonal migration on the East Asian-Australasian Flyway, serving as both a crucial stopover and a winter sanctuary for migratory birds, which I had described in Part I of this article.
Parallel, and perhaps more importantly, from both economic and social perspectives, is the human seasonal migration to Hainan from northern China, starting in autumn. These retirees, known as ‘late migratory birds’ or ‘snowbirds’(候鸟), in the hundreds of thousands descend on Hainan for health, lifestyle, and economic reasons. For many retirees from northern China, moving southwards is for health reasons. The bitter cold during the long winter months in the north is a major trigger for cardiovascular and respiratory diseases. Staying in Hainan's warm, tropical climate is a way to reduce the risk of illness and to improve one’s overall well-being during this period. It is also a lifestyle reason because when one retiree from the north moves south, all her retiree friends also move south, bringing along their instruments and costumes to play and dance together on the warm sandy beaches late into the night! Interestingly, there is also an economic reason. For some retirees, the cost of heating and medical care during the harsh northern winter is comparable to the expense of renting a place in Hainan for a few months. The advantage is a comfortable time spent outdoors in summer clothes, making it a ‘value for money’ choice!
This human seasonal migration from North China to Hainan began in the early 2000s, with the phenomenon first appearing in media reports around 2005. In the first decade of the 2000s, the number of ‘snowbirds’ making the seasonal journey was relatively small. However, by 2016, the movement had grown significantly, with over 400,000 ‘snowbirds’ flocking to Sanya alone each year. Today, there are over a million ‘snowbirds’ wintering in Hainan!
When viewed from an economic perspective, consideration must be given to the real estate sector. Even today, the broader real estate sector contributes 20% of China’s GDP. Hainan's property market has experienced two major boom-and-bust cycles. The first cycle in the 1990s was driven almost entirely by policy changes and speculative capital. The second cycle in the 2010s, however, was heavily influenced by the seasonal migration of ‘snowbirds’, who became the primary targets for property developers. It was a key driver of demand that contributed to unsustainable market growth and its eventual correction. The provincial government intervened early, and although there was a significant market slowdown, the collapse did not materialize as it did in the 1990s.
This annual influx of seasonal residents has a profound mixed impact on Hainan. It creates a ‘half-year economy‘ or ‘pulse economy’ (半年经济), where businesses related to real estate, dining, and services thrive in winter but see a sharp decline when the migrants leave in spring. The sudden population surge also puts significant pressure on healthcare and infrastructure. The dramatic impact is most obvious in Ocean Flower Island(海花岛), which has become a prime wintering destination for ‘snowbirds’. It is estimated that during the low season, the permanent population is 20,000, but during the peak season, the number of residents is five times that number.
Both the ‘pulse’ and ‘tidal’ economic models that Hainan experiences annually are not sustainable in the long term, and the provincial government, as an integral part of developing the Hainan Free Trade Port, has taken concrete measures to diversify the economic activities of Hainan, which I will discuss in a subsequent article on Caihui Port!
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